At 1.1°C of global heating, climate change is already having profound impacts on the
socioeconomic and environmental conditions that human health and wellbeing depend on, making
it the greatest threat to global health of this century. Monitoring the changing hazards of
climate change is essential to identify populations at risk, and to develop adaptive and
coping capacity mechanisms that can help minimise the associated health impacts.
Indicators presented here estimate changes in climate-related health risks driven by changing
climatic conditions under different climate change scenarios, assuming no changes in
adaptation. These build on the indicators of the Lancet Countdown, to capture the influence of
the changing climate on health risks. They therefore help identify the risks that could be
avoided through ambitious mitigation, as well as the need for accellerated adaptation efforts
to prevent the worst health harms in a heating world.
Indicators in this section cover four key areas: Heat and Health, Wildfires, Infectious
Diseases, and Food Insecurity and Undernutrition.
The data exhibit the potentially catastrophic health consequences of climate inaction, and the
major health gains that would arise from taking urgent measures today to meet international
climate commitments and limit global mean temperature rise to 1.5°C. Importantly they also
expose the need for urgent adaptation to protect the most vulnerable populations from the now
unavoidable increase in health hazards.
By clicking on the countries in the map, indicators can be explored by domain for each
emission scenario: a scenario that assumes no climate policy (compatible with global mean
temperature rise of approximately 3.6°C, and SSP3-7); and a scenario in which temperatures are
kept below 2°C throughout the century (SSP1-2.6). Data are presented in three time slices,
representing the 20-year averages for the the near- (2021-2040), medium- (2041-2060) and
long-term (2081-2100) future. Short-term projections in the "below 2°C" scenario are presented
as an approximation of the expected change in climate hazards and risks if global mean
temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C. Data are presented as absolute or relative (as
percentage) change with respect to the baseline period of 1995-2014 for each of the future
time slices. The median, maximum and minimum values of the five climate models used are