Kenya

Droughts and erratic rainfall patterns will impact livelihoods of pastoralism

Traditional customs and ways of life that have endured for centuries are now under threat due to climate change. One such example is pastoralism, which has provided a secure livelihood for many communities

For generations, people in Kenya, like the Maasai tribe, have followed a nomadic lifestyle, moving with their herds to find suitable pastures and water sources for their cattle, sheep or goats.

However, the increasing frequency of droughts caused by climate change jeopardizes the livelihoods of pastoralists.

Like his ancestors from the Maasai tribe, Isaac Nemuta is a pastoralist based in Kajiado county. Isaac owns a herd of cows and goats.

However, the ongoing severe drought in the Horn of Africa has resulted in a scarcity of pasture and water, posing significant challenges to his livestock and way of life.

Pastoralists have historically adapted to the natural variations of climatic conditions and water supply. Their survival and livelihoods are intricately linked to livestock production, which, in turn, relies on the stability of seasonal patterns.

However, these once stable and predictable weather patterns are becoming increasingly erratic. Pastoralists often rely on traditional forecasting methods, which are becoming less reliable due to the impact of climate change. The growing unpredictability in weather variations and the recurrence of extreme events, such as droughts, pose significant threats to the well-being of agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. These challenges further amplify the vulnerability of rural livelihoods.

Droughts rank among the most impactful climate extremes experienced in Kenya and particularly affect the most vulnerable groups. Recently, Kenya faced one of the most severe droughts in its history, placing millions of Kenyans at risk of food insecurity. In the arid and semi-arid lands, which are particularly affected, an estimated 2.1 million people experienced high levels of acute food insecurity.

Data from the Climate Vulnerable Monitor 3 indicates a significant increase in the likelihood of droughts in the coming decades. Under a scenario that limits global warming to below 1.5°C, the number of drought events is projected to triple compared to the baseline by 2050. In a scenario with warming below 2.0°C, the number of drought events per 20 years is projected to increase fivefold and in a no climate policy scenario, it is projected to increase sevenfold relative to the baseline.

By the end of the century, the occurrence of drought events in Kenya is projected to further rise under a below 2.0°C scenario and no climate policy scenario.

Climate change impacts

in Kenya

Increased Temperatures

Droughts

Heatwaves

Currently, rainfall in Kenya has become irregular and unpredictable. Traditionally, the country experiences a bimodal seasonal pattern of rainfall throughout the year:

the "long rains" from March to May are particularly important for agricultural production, while the "short rains" in November and December have historically provided reliable precipitation. However, retired Professor Francis Mutua, who holds a PhD in Hydrometeorology from the University of Nairobi, notes that the reliability of the short rains has diminished over time.

The changes in rainfall patterns observed in Kenya are attributed to climate change. The rainy seasons in the country are progressively becoming wetter, characterized by sudden or delayed onsets that often result in floods and inundation. In the past, rainfall seasons were predictable, but now there are delays or premature endings of rainfall.

This poses significant challenges for Kenyan agriculture, which heavily relies on rainwater for cultivation. Hydrologist Francis Mutua emphasizes that water security is one of the most prominent threats.

In response to the changing conditions, pastoralists like Isaac Nemuta in Kajiado county have started implementing measures to adapt. For example, they harvest rainwater in a large tank. Others diversify their livestock species, or even venture into growing cereals, maize or beans. However, the lack of financial resources for adaptation hampers Kenya’s ability to adequately prepare for the increasingly extreme climate.

Zeynab Wandati, a journalist with extensive experience covering climate change in Kenya, highlights the challenge of insufficient financing for adaptation efforts within Kenyan society. Wandati works as Climate and Science Editor in Nairobi.

Kenya

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Climate change impacts

in Kenya

This websites uses Vimeo as a video host.

This websites uses Vimeo as a video host.